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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

蘋果削減iPhone 5零部件訂單的三大猜想

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年12月19日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,就會相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認為,在報道蘋果公司時有點懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司。
蘋果公司削減2013年初iPhone 5訂單的報道面世后,業(yè)界人士浮想聯(lián)翩。目前主要出現(xiàn)了三個版本的猜測:1) iPhone銷售疲弱。2) 產(chǎn)出率提高。3) 蘋果是在為推出新機型做準備。

????過去幾天,至少已有五位分析師根據(jù)蘋果公司(Apple)削減2013年初iPhone 5訂單的報道,調(diào)低了蘋果公司股票的目標價,分別是:瑞銀(UBS)的史蒂夫·米洛諾維奇(從775美元降至700美元),花旗(Citi)的格倫·揚(從675美元降至575美元),Canaccord的邁克爾·沃基(從800美元降至750美元),瑞穗(Mizuho)的艾比·蘭姆巴(從750美元降至600美元)和太平洋皇冠證券公司(Pacific Crest)的安迪·哈格瑞弗(從645美元降至565美元)。

????所有這五位分析師似乎都是基于這樣的假設(shè),蘋果削減訂單是因為iPhone 5銷量不如預(yù)期——這種推斷有點站不住腳,看看蘋果公布的兩個iPhone 5銷售數(shù)據(jù)就知道了:9月份iPhone 5全球首發(fā)以及上周末中國首發(fā)時,銷量都刷新了紀錄。

????那么,蘋果削減iPhone 5零部件訂單是另有其他原因嗎?我們聽到了兩種不同的說法:

????蘋果iPhone 5的產(chǎn)出率提高了。正如Business Insider的賈·亞羅表示:“可能是以前蘋果認為iPhone 5的生產(chǎn)難度很大,下的(零部件)訂單量較大。結(jié)果生產(chǎn)難度還可以,所以蘋果可以削減訂單了?!?/p>

????蘋果正在控制庫存,為6月份當季推出一款新的iPhone做準備。這是蘋果前首席執(zhí)行官約翰·斯卡利傾向的說法。“我想,他們在產(chǎn)品周期上有一個很大的調(diào)整,”他告訴消費者新聞與財經(jīng)電視頻道(CNBC):“傳統(tǒng)上,蘋果的新品推出是每年一次;現(xiàn)在事實上是每年兩次。從供應(yīng)鏈角度,這樣做極其復(fù)雜,但蘋果似乎做得不錯。因此,我想人們可能低估了目前蘋果經(jīng)營狀況有多好,以及一旦蘋果適應(yīng)了每年兩次新品推出后,該公司將取得的成功?!?/p>

????響應(yīng)斯卡利的說法,Asymco的賀拉斯·德迪烏已收集了六條間接證據(jù)。在我看來,這些證據(jù)非常有說服力。請點擊查看《S代表著春天嗎?》

????譯者:早稻米

????At least five analysts lowered their Apple (AAPL) price targets in the past few days based on reports that the company has reduced its iPhone 5 orders for early 2013:?UBS'?Steve Milunovich (to $700 from $775),?Citi's Glen Yeung ($575 from $675), Canaccord's T. Michael Walkley ($750 from $800), Mizuho's Abbey Lamba ($600 from $750) and Pacific Crest's Andy Hargreaves ($565 from $645).

????All five seem to be operating on the assumption that Apple cut its orders because the company is selling fewer iPhone 5s than expected -- a theory undercut somewhat by the only two things Apple has said about iPhone 5 sales: That they broke records?in September, when the device was first released, and?last weekend, when it launched in China.

????So are there other reasons Apple may have cut back on iPhone 5 parts orders? We've heard two competing theories:

????Apple is making the iPhone 5 more efficiently.?As?Business Insider's Jay Yarow put it: "Apple may have put in a bigger manufacturing order under the assumption that the iPhone 5 was going to be hard to make. Turns out it's not that hard to make, so Apple can cut its order."

????Apple is clearing the decks for a new iPhone in the June quarter.?This is the theory favored by former Apple CEO John Sculley. "I think they're going through a very significant change now in terms of product cycles," he?told CNBC. "Traditionally Apple introduces products once a year; now it's really introducing products twice a year. The complexity of that from a supply chain is immense, and Apple seems to be doing it well. So, I think that people are underestimating just how well Apple is run, and just how successful the company can be when it gets to that twice-a-year product introduction cycle."

????In support of Sculley's theory,?Asymco's Horace Dediu has collected half a dozen pieces of what he describes as circumstantial evidence. They seem pretty convincing to me. See?Does S stand for Spring?

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